Zoë Schiffer: Emil Michael, you need to flip off your views on LinkedIn as a result of individuals can see after they take a look at your telephone.
Brian Barrett: Yeah, that is a tip for Emil Michael in case you’re listening. After which, in case you pay attention to Uncanny Valley, which you need to.
Leah Feiger: And this is actually the Trump official that is type of main the warfare towards Anthropic right here. He has these deep ties to the tech world and he is the Pentagon’s public enemy quantity one in all anybody who’s attempting to cross the Pentagon. So the incontrovertible fact that, one, he has not possibly the finest op sec in the world? However two, is snug making this such a public battle, is very a lot one thing to take observe as a result of it is not only a message to Anthropic in my thoughts. It is a message to anybody else who would dare query these insurance policies.
Brian Barrett: I need to go to one thing prime of thoughts. Have you ever all checked your Kalshi or Polymarket portfolios currently? How are we doing?
Leah Feiger: Properly, I have not invested but in our Survivor winners, however quickly, quickly.
Brian Barrett: No, when it comes to issues that are stunning however should not be anymore, prediction markets clearly have kind of taken over a lot of our lives in so some ways by—I imply the common “our,” not the three of us.
Leah Feiger: The three of us really textual content each single morning and go, “What’d you make on Kalshi final evening?”
Brian Barrett: Yeah. However stunning, not stunning, there’s a lot betting going on round the Iran warfare to proceed that thread. Proper now, one in all the prime bets on Polymarket is “Will the Iran regime fall by June thirtieth?” Complete bets round 7 million {dollars} in that market alone.
Leah Feiger: That is so upsetting, Brian.
Brian Barrett: Yeah.
Leah Feiger: These are individuals’s lives. I do not know. I perceive that a lot of this has change into a gamified model of itself. I perceive that the inventory market and the method that we accomplish that a lot of all of this, however this feels further gamified to me.
Brian Barrett: Properly, and when it comes to individuals’s lives, I imply, there was a giant controversy simply earlier this week about how Kalshi settled a wager or resolved a market. There was a 54 million greenback market on the fate of Iran’s supreme leader. I consider that they phrased it—Leah, appropriate me if I am flawed—they phrased it as, like, he’ll be out of energy.
Leah Feiger: That was precisely what occurred.
Brian Barrett: After which he was blown up by a missile.
Leah Feiger: So technically out of energy, however that wasn’t the wager.
Brian Barrett: As a result of you possibly can’t wager, they usually’re like, “We do not permit you to wager on deaths right here.” So he is out of energy, however not. In order that they are invariably betting on whether or not individuals will die, simply discovering cute methods round it after which having a tough time resolving these markets, in order that’s an issue. The truth that there was a 54 million greenback bounty out on this man collectively from betters, together with one person referred to as MAGAMyMan, who had received $553,000 on the timing of all this. It is outrageous. And I believe whether or not or not any of this is insider buying and selling, it is grotesque.
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